| 1. Identity statement | |
| Reference Type | Conference Abstract (Conference Proceedings) |
| Site | mtc-m16d.sid.inpe.br |
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP7W/388RQ7P |
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2010/09.13.19.38 |
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19/2010/09.13.19.38.28 |
| Metadata Last Update | 2021:01.02.03.58.16 (UTC) administrator |
| Secondary Key | INPE--PRE/ |
| Citation Key | GrimmFlacTede:2010:ENExRa |
| Title | ENSO and extreme rainfall events in present and future climate in South America  |
| Year | 2010 |
| Access Date | 2024, May 18 |
| Secondary Type | PRE CI |
| 2. Context | |
| Author | 1 Grimm, A M 2 Flach, R A 3 Tedeschi, Renata Gonçalves |
| Group | 1 2 3 DMD-CPT-INPE-MCT-BR |
| Affiliation | 1 Physics, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, Brazil 2 Physics, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, Brazil 3 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) |
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 grimm@fisica.ufpr.br 2 rafa.ambiental@gmail.com 3 renata.tedeschi@cptec.inpe.br |
| Conference Name | The Meeting of the Americas. |
| Conference Location | Foz do Iguaçu, BR |
| Date | 08-12 aug 2010 |
| Book Title | Abstracts |
| Tertiary Type | Extended Abstact |
| History (UTC) | 2010-12-01 15:14:04 :: valdirene -> administrator :: 2010 2021-01-02 03:58:16 :: administrator -> simone :: 2010 |
| 3. Content and structure | |
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master |
| Content Stage | completed |
| Transferable | 1 |
| Content Type | External Contribution |
| Keywords | Extreme events climate change and variability precipitation ENSO |
| Abstract | Analysis with observed data shows a clear association between ENSO (El Niño / La Niña) episodes and the frequency of extreme rainfall events over South America. ENSO is the main source of interannual variability in South America, and its influence varies throughout the annual cycle. For instance, in austral spring (November) it is very significant in southeastern South America, producing increase (decrease) of extreme events in the La Plata Basin during El Niño (EN) (La Niña, LN) episodes. In peak summer monsoon season (January), the extreme events in Central-East South America, in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and in the core monsoon region are enhanced (hampered) during EN (LN) episodes. In austral autumn (April), there is significant enhancement of extreme events in the La Plata Basin during EN episodes, while at the same time of LN episodes the frequency of extreme events is increased in Northeast Brazil. These significant changes in extremes are much more extensive than the corresponding changes in monthly rainfall, because the highest sensitivity to ENSO is in the extreme range of daily precipitation. The ENSO-related changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall are important, since the most dramatic consequences of climate variability result from changes in extreme events. Therefore, an important issue is the assessment of the impact of global anthropogenic climate change on ENSO and its impact on extreme rainfall in South America. Possible future changes in the influence of ENSO on the frequency of extreme precipitation events in South America are analyzed through the outputs of the coupled model ECHAM5-OM for the twentieth century climate (1960-2000), and the future climate scenario SRES-A2 (2060-2100). Extreme events are defined as three-day mean precipitation above the 90th percentile. The EN and LN years in the model output are determined from the Niño 3 SST anomalies (as in the observations), and verified against the extreme phases of the ENSO mode of SST variability, for both periods. The model reproduces well the strongest observed impacts of ENSO in the present climate, although not all their features. The areas with consistent impact on the frequency of extreme events are generally extended in the future climate, and the ENSO-related frequency is enhanced with respect to the present in several instances, such as the spring in southeastern South America (La Plata Basin). Also the shifts produced in the daily rainfall distributions, with respect to present climate during EN, LN and all years are examined. In southern Brazil, for instance, the probability of light rainfall in spring is reduced, while it increases in the heavy rainfall tail of the frequency distributions. |
| Area | MET |
| Arrangement | ENSO and extreme... |
| doc Directory Content | there are no files |
| source Directory Content | there are no files |
| agreement Directory Content | there are no files |
| 4. Conditions of access and use | |
| Language | en |
| User Group | valdirene administrator |
| Visibility | shown |
| Read Permission | deny from all and allow from 150.163 |
| 5. Allied materials | |
| Mirror Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2009/08.21.17.02.53 |
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SKC35 |
| Host Collection | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m19@80/2009/08.21.17.02 |
| 6. Notes | |
| Empty Fields | archivingpolicy archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel dissemination documentstage doi e-mailaddress edition editor format isbn issn label lineage mark nextedition notes numberoffiles numberofvolumes orcid organization pages parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project publisher publisheraddress readergroup resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarymark serieseditor session shorttitle size sponsor subject targetfile tertiarymark type url versiontype volume |
| 7. Description control | |
| e-Mail (login) | simone |
| update | |